Model and Dynamic Behavior of Risk Propagation in Complex Agricultural Supply Chain Networks in China and Their Topological Evolution

Abstract

In this paper the dynamic mechanisms and behavior of risk propagation in complex supply chain networks for agricultural products are studied, as well as the topological evolutionary trend of these networks in China. After investigating the topology and component properties of actual agricultural supply chain networks, dynamic models for risk propagation in the networks and in their topological evolution are established, and steady state solutions are provided. The application analysis of the models is then conducted. This study identifies a series of dynamic behavioral characteristics for risk propagation in agricultural complex supply chain networks and in their evolutionary trends, and the findings have a high reference value for the research of similar issues in non-agricultural supply chain networks and their topological evolutions based on Internet technology and e-commerce development.