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基於時間序列的網路輿情預測模型

程輝(Hui Cheng),
劉雲(Yun Liu),

Abstract


本文根據社會慣性理論和網路輿情在時間上的延續性，提出了一個從時間和數量的角度對網路輿情發展趨勢進行預測的模型。模型用網路上帖子數量隨時間變化的趨勢來表示網路輿情的發展趨勢，使用時間序列中常用的自回歸移動平均模型(Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average, ARIMA)對這個趨勢進行了預測。This paper presents a model to forecast the trend of online public opinion from the view of time and number, which bases on social inertia theory and time continuity of online public opinion. The model uses the trend of posts numbers with time in a forum to show the development trend of online public opinion, and forecasts this trend using ARIMA model which is a staple model in time series.

Keywords


網路輿情; 時間序列; 預測; 自回歸移動平均模型; Online Public Opinion; Time Series; Forecast; Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model ARIMA Model

Citation Format:
程輝(Hui Cheng), 劉雲(Yun Liu), "基於時間序列的網路輿情預測模型," Journal of Internet Technology, vol. 9, no. 5 , pp. 429-432, Dec. 2008.

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