輿論演進中聚集現象及其引導策略的模擬研究

Abstract

建立輿論演進過程及其引導策略的模型，並對其進行模擬和分析。首先根據實際生活中人們採納觀點的行為，分別建立一維和二維兩種情況下輿論演進的模型，並得出了與現實社會中相吻合的同質群體聚集現象。其次在該模型的基礎上對兩種輿論引導方式－強勢型引導和嵌入型引導－進行建模，並模擬和分析上述兩種模型的引導效果。Models and intervention strategies were established for opinion evolution, simulations and analysis were carried out. First, one dimension and two dimension models were established based on human behavioral patterns in real life, results of these two models made a good agreement with opinion evolution in real life and aggregation phenomenon emerged in the simulations. Second, two models of intervention strategies-external pressure intervention strategy and embedded intervention strategy-were established based on the former opinion evolution models, simulations and analysis were done for these two models.